Royal Statistical Society event: Statistics in Politics

The RSS Highlands, Glasgow and Edinburgh local groups hosting a joint event on Statistics in Politics. The event will have Dr Lynn Bennie (University of Aberdeen) and Professor Sir John Curtice (University of Strathclyde) as speakers.

Registration is required for in-person attendance. Please register here

Attend online here

Event order:

2.00pm - Welcome

2.05pm - Dr Lynn Bennie - Are public opinion polls good for democracy?

Public opinion polls are an inescapable feature of modern liberal democratic life. Polls can be seen to enhance democratic debate and connect citizens to politics, providing evidence on the public mood and helping shape public policy. During election campaigns, they both inform citizens and help political parties to understand the electorate. There are, however, some niggling concerns. Do public opinion polls distort our public debate by simplifying complex issues? Do the polls over-step by shaping electoral behaviour, encouraging voters to jump on the bandwagon or to stay at home? Do political parties use polls simply for their own gain? Methodologically, how many polls are rigorous and robust? Lynn Bennie considers the arguments.

2.35pm - Tea and Coffee

3.00pm - Prof John Curtice - The Methodology of Exit Polling in Britain

Any exit poll of an in-person election has to be conducted at a sample of polling locations. However, in contrast to common international practice, the UK counts elections at a central location rather than in individual polling stations. As a result, no official information is available on the distribution of party support in individual stations at previous elections. This makes it difficult to select a sample of polling stations that is representative of the level and geographical variation in party support at previous elections. At the same time, the UK uses an electoral system under which there is no systematic relationship between overall shares of the vote and seats won. In this talk Prof . Curtice will outline the approach that has been adopted by the BBC/ITV News/Sy exit poll at recent Westminster elections to overcome these challenges, evaluate its success and failures, and consider the new difficulties that may be posed by the current fragmentation of Britain’s electoral politics.

4.00pm - Close