Direct versus implied judgments of economic trends

Abstract: Most polls and consumer sentiment surveys elicit judgments of economic trends with direct questions, such as “is the economy today better than it was a year ago?” We compare this direct format to an implied format, which asks respondents to rate the economy at two points in time. We find a substantial and systematic discrepancy across formats. Tests for bias indicate that the implied format subtracts out response noise that remains in direct format responses. For instance, the direct format is more vulnerable than the implied format to bias from respondents’ political opinions.