Centre for Real Estate Research
Annual Lecture 2018
Among the unique characteristics of property as an investment asset are its long physical life and its relative illiquidity. Consequently, it is advisable for the prudent investor to attempt some assessment of the long-term trends likely to affect future property performance, rather than hiding behind the old mantra that ‘it is all in the yield’. This presentation does not attempt to present a long-term forecast of future trends, but rather suggests an approach that investors might find helpful in exploring the issues.
The suggested approach draws upon the cyclical dynamic of property markets, and in particular the persistent long cycles of 15 to 20 years duration that have been observed across different economies in different periods. Each long cycle era can be associated with a unique combination of circumstances, in terms of factors such as economic structure, sources of demand, financing methods and regulatory regime. This framework allows us to look both backwards and forwards, exploring the state of our knowledge about the future based on what happened in the past. The approach is tested by taking ourselves back to 1987/8 and identifying what then we knew, what we thought we knew, and what we didn’t know. We then move forward to the present day to ask the same questions about the state of our knowledge looking forward over the next thirty years.
*Please note registration opens at 6pm for a prompt 6:30pm start.
- Dr Richard Barras
- King's Conference Centre