We were delighted to welcome Russell Napier to the University of Aberdeen Business School on Friday the 29th of November 2025. Russell Napier is a renowned financial historian, global macro strategist, and author whose work has guided institutional investors for over three decades. Best known for his books Anatomy of the Bear and The Asian Financial Crisis, he combines historical insight with macroeconomic analysis to explain the forces shaping today’s markets. He is also the founder of The Library of Mistakes and an honorary professor in finance. Napier’s perspectives on financial repression, monetary policy and long-term market cycles continue to make him one of the most respected voices in global finance.
Five-Point Summary of Russell Napier’s Talk
- Supply matters just as much as demand. Napier emphasised that investors and analysts often obsess over demand, but long-term shifts—such as the rise of China—show that understanding supply dynamics is equally essential.
- Market returns don’t follow GDP growth. He stressed that economic growth alone doesn’t determine equity returns; valuations and what you pay for assets matter far more than headline growth figures.
- Unsustainable trends can last longer than expected. Citing Pepper’s Law, Napier reminded students that financial imbalances and bubbles can persist well beyond rational expectations—so timing them is fraught with danger.
- Incentives drive outcomes. Echoing Charlie Munger, he highlighted that understanding incentives—of governments, companies, and individuals—is key to interpreting financial behaviour and policy decisions.
- Governments intervene when markets don’t give them the prices they want. Napier noted that states have a long history of suspending or manipulating market prices when it suits them, especially during periods of financial repression or crisis.