All bets are off: it's a US election year

All bets are off: it's a US election year
2020-02-27

A US Presidential Election isn’t a single day event.  Well, it is – in that voters have one day in which to cast their ballot for the president.  But the contest begins well in advance of the November election, and this year is no exception.  No sooner had Donald Trump been sworn in as the 45th President in January 2017 were battle plans being drawn up by Democrats on how to beat him in 2020.  And now 2020 is here, can they put those plans into action?

We’re a long way from knowing how the election will go in November.  President Trump has been impeached by the Democrat-led House of Representatives (the lower house) for ‘high crimes and misdemeanours’ after alleged attempts to get Ukrainian officials to investigate the son of one of his potential Democratic opponents.  The Republican majority in the Senate – the upper house of Congress, where the impeachment trial was held – meant that his acquittal on these charges was largely a foregone conclusion.  Nevertheless, Democrats will feel they have wounded the president, and hope the allegations will have an impact on his re-election chances.  We wait to see whether that will indeed be the case.

The race to be the Democratic challenger to President Trump in November is just getting started.  A field of almost thirty candidates began campaigns a year ago – and even as the primary season is only just beginning, that field has narrowed considerably.  Of the twelve or so candidates that remain active, the choice appears to be between four of them: Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, representing the more leftist wing of the party; and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Joe Biden, who have more centrist positions.  At this stage – with very few convention delegates awarded – there is no clear frontrunner.  However, what is clear is that whoever the Democrats select as their candidate, they will have a difficult task to overcome the president in November.

In an election year, Americans tend to prize two things: stability abroad, and an economy that is in good shape.  Everything else is secondary.  With the US presence in the Middle East more limited than in recent years, and unemployment at its lowest rate in 50 years, many Americans are crediting President Trump with these achievements.  Everything else that is going on, the impeachment trial, the Twitter tirades, diplomatic faux pas and all the rest, is window-dressing.  To put it mildly, President Trump may not be everyone’s cup of tea – and there are legitimate questions being asked about his fitness to hold that office – but he is presiding over an America which is doing well economically and, as he recognised in his State of the Union address, has disentangled itself from a number of international obligations and conflicts. 

These are significant advantages for a sitting president in an election year.  The Democratic challenger – whoever that is – will have their work cut out if they are to evict Donald Trump from the White House this year.

Published by The School of Social Science, University of Aberdeen

Search Blog

Browse by Month

2024

  1. Jan There are no items to show for January 2024
  2. Feb There are no items to show for February 2024
  3. Mar There are no items to show for March 2024
  4. Apr There are no items to show for April 2024
  5. May
  6. Jun
  7. Jul
  8. Aug
  9. Sep There are no items to show for September 2024
  10. Oct There are no items to show for October 2024
  11. Nov There are no items to show for November 2024
  12. Dec There are no items to show for December 2024

2023

  1. Jan
  2. Feb
  3. Mar
  4. Apr There are no items to show for April 2023
  5. May
  6. Jun There are no items to show for June 2023
  7. Jul There are no items to show for July 2023
  8. Aug There are no items to show for August 2023
  9. Sep There are no items to show for September 2023
  10. Oct There are no items to show for October 2023
  11. Nov There are no items to show for November 2023
  12. Dec There are no items to show for December 2023

2022

  1. Jan There are no items to show for January 2022
  2. Feb There are no items to show for February 2022
  3. Mar There are no items to show for March 2022
  4. Apr There are no items to show for April 2022
  5. May There are no items to show for May 2022
  6. Jun There are no items to show for June 2022
  7. Jul There are no items to show for July 2022
  8. Aug There are no items to show for August 2022
  9. Sep
  10. Oct There are no items to show for October 2022
  11. Nov There are no items to show for November 2022
  12. Dec

2021

  1. Jan There are no items to show for January 2021
  2. Feb There are no items to show for February 2021
  3. Mar There are no items to show for March 2021
  4. Apr There are no items to show for April 2021
  5. May There are no items to show for May 2021
  6. Jun There are no items to show for June 2021
  7. Jul There are no items to show for July 2021
  8. Aug There are no items to show for August 2021
  9. Sep
  10. Oct There are no items to show for October 2021
  11. Nov There are no items to show for November 2021
  12. Dec There are no items to show for December 2021

2020

  1. Jan There are no items to show for January 2020
  2. Feb
  3. Mar There are no items to show for March 2020
  4. Apr There are no items to show for April 2020
  5. May There are no items to show for May 2020
  6. Jun There are no items to show for June 2020
  7. Jul There are no items to show for July 2020
  8. Aug There are no items to show for August 2020
  9. Sep There are no items to show for September 2020
  10. Oct There are no items to show for October 2020
  11. Nov There are no items to show for November 2020
  12. Dec There are no items to show for December 2020

2019

  1. Jan There are no items to show for January 2019
  2. Feb There are no items to show for February 2019
  3. Mar There are no items to show for March 2019
  4. Apr There are no items to show for April 2019
  5. May There are no items to show for May 2019
  6. Jun
  7. Jul
  8. Aug There are no items to show for August 2019
  9. Sep
  10. Oct
  11. Nov
  12. Dec There are no items to show for December 2019