Project title: Integrating real time surveillance and dynamic modelling of COVID-19 in Grampian to inform an adaptive healthcare response.
Duration: Project Completed
Research Team: Dr Dimitra Blana, Dr Edward Chadwick, Dr Jessica Butler, Mr Graham Osler (NHS Grampian), Dr Mintu Nath, Ms Katie Wilde, Professor Corri Black
- Project Summary
The aim of this project was to provide timely information on the local progression of COVID-19 to NHS Grampian to enable the optimal provision of additional resources to deal with changing clinical demand.
We have developed a variety of monitoring and modelling tools. A novel social distancing score aims to identify areas that might be at greater risk of transmitting COVID-19, due to likely constraints in the ability to adhere to social distancing guidelines. This is being used to inform COVID-19 testing provision. A tool for visualising clusters of positive cases and their contacts is being used by the NHS Grampian Health Intelligence team to track local outbreaks. We developed an epidemiological model that has been customised to fit the Grampian outbreak profile. This is used and updated daily by the Health Intelligence team to predict the number of hospitalisations, and estimate the effect that different scenarios (e.g. changes in levels of restrictions) will have on local healthcare demand. We are using the same data to understand the dynamics of hospital pathways with a multi-state statistical modelling framework.
Using the tools we have developed, we hope to continue providing essential information to NHS Grampian for the duration of the pandemic.
The tools we have developed are already being used by NHS Grampian to help inform the local COVID-19 response. They are freely available when possible to encourage use by other NHS boards.
Work Package 1 (Real time monitoring and visualisation)
Work Package 2 (Customised Grampian model)
- Public Engagement
We discussed the project in an episode of the Cafe Connect podcast “Following the science: how data modelling is used to inform the COVID-19 response at a local level”, with project PI Dr Dimitra Blana, co-applicants Prof Corri Black and Dr Graham Osler, and Dr Nick Fluck, medical director for NHS Grampian.
Shielding and Vulnerable Groups
Project Title: Minimising impact on vulnerable patients: data-driven design, monitoring and adaptation of Covid and non Covid clinical care pathways
Funder: Chief Scientist Office
Duration: 01/05/20 to 31/10/20
Research Team: Professor Corri Black, Professor Lesley Anderson, Dr Simon Sawhney, Dr Rosemary Hollick, Dr Mintu Nath
- Project Summary
Vulnerable patients with multiple health problems need regular clinic appointments and hospital admissions. However, to minimise their chances of being infected with COVID-19, the government has advised them to self-isolate and avoid contact with hospitals and health care settings. This strategy could make their underlying conditions worse, unless the NHS can find a different way of looking after them. We will use clinical data from vulnerable patients whose current treatment is being disrupted to find out what their needs are and to plan alternative ways of continuing their care.