There is a substantive amount of debate about the nature and shape of the future UK economy in the context of achieving Net Zero. This has, rightly so, been focused on the regions, places and sectors that have been dependant on fossil fuel industries for generations and how we can ensure that this process of change is fair, inclusive, provides high skill high wage jobs and minimises the impacts on workers and communities. We haven’t got it right and there are many challenges that are facing our communities as the transition moves forward. There is also a wider context to consider as the transition unfolds. This includes the need to address the vast inequalities within our fossil fuel dominated energy system that is exacerbating fuel poverty, the cost-of-living crisis and driving negative impacts on health outcomes and local economies. The inescapable reality is that the planetary climate crisis – driven by global emissions – is now entering a new and dangerous phase with records broken in oceanic heat, year on year temperature rises, flooding and disturbing recent reports that the Atlantic meridional circulation (aka Gulf stream) may reach a tipping point sooner than expected in coming decades – with vast consequences for the UK and the planet. It is in this context that we need to examine the potential for decarbonisation, and how the UK can position itself, and fulfil its obligations, as a global leader in a decarbonised economy.
Why more oil and gas won’t secure our future
The arguments about maintaining fossil fuel production in the UK are not new and are often pitched as a pragmatic way to protect jobs, strengthen ‘energy security’ and keep the lights on. The argument is familiar: Britain still relies on hydrocarbons – as does the global economy - so new exploration is needed to safeguard communities, jobs and the economy. While there is some merit and a case for the strategic use of existing reserves to support a diverse energy system, this framing risks missing the real opportunity. Decarbonisation is not deindustrialisation. Done right, the shift to a low-carbon economy is a pathway to reindustrialisation: new jobs, resilient industries, and a stronger economy built on the technologies of the future. It’s this opportunity where the UK can lead, can export and rise to the challenge - and where workers and communities are at the centre of addressing the climate crisis. It’s a system where real energy security is delivered to the communities of the UK, where bills are lower, we are not beholden to increasing imports and we are more responsive to the needs of workers and communities.
New oil and gas fields take years to come online. They won’t solve short-term energy challenges, they won’t affect bills and will lock the UK into carbon infrastructure for decades, long after we must have reached Net Zero. They don’t shield us from global price shocks either, since oil and gas are traded on international markets. Consumers still pay world prices whether the gas is drilled in Aberdeen or imported from Qatar. Every pound spent extending fossil fuel infrastructure is a pound not spent on scaling renewables, innovating on cost and capacity, insulating homes, or modernising the grid. In addition, scientists and organisations like the IEA, have identified that there is an oversupply of oil and gas, with emissions from existing and planned fields vastly exceeding the world's remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C. But neither do we drop our industries or workers off a cliff edge – the reservoir of skills, critical infrastructure, know-how and industrial pride are a huge asset, and one that needs considered planning, support and investment.
Decarbonisation as a driver of reindustrialisation
Critics claim climate policy risks hollowing out British industry. The UK already lived through deindustrialisation in the 1980s and 1990s—caused by underinvestment, privatisation, and offshoring, not by climate action. We should learn from that history: failing to plan for industrial change leaves communities stranded often with long term impacts on local economies, health and infrastructure.
This time, we have a choice. Net Zero is creating new markets: offshore wind, hydrogen, carbon capture, battery storage, smart grids and clean manufacturing. Britain already employs more than 30,000 people in offshore wind, with projections of nearly 100,000 by 2030. Michael Liebreich in his fascinating piece on Superheroes of the Transition discusses the exponential growth of cheap wind, solar and batteries, supported by smart innovative systems solutions integrating supply and demand led technologies underpinned by digitalisation. He cautions us to be wary of the primary energy fallacy – identifying that renewables can address our energy needs in far more efficient ways than the wasteful burning of fossil fuels. We get far more ‘bang for our buck’ from renewable systems.
A just transition for communities
None of this means ignoring the workers and regions that have long powered the UK economy. A just transition is essential. Communities across the UK must be at the centre of planning, supported with investment in skills, infrastructure, and fair employment. We know the requirements, worker centred support and investment that delivers seamless training, income support, safety and investment in opportunities as presented in reports such as Our Power or the work of the Just Transition Lab in measuring a just transition. We have examples from around the world on how to get this right. Places like Collie in Australia who are developing robust worker and community led transitions out of coal and are global exemplars on how to deliver a just approach. The secret – engage early and comprehensively, bring everyone along not just a select few, plan, and invest. And don’t leave it too late – plan for the transition before it happens, not when jobs are being lost.
Far from being a story of deindustrialisation, Net Zero can be the UK’s best chance at economic renewal and a just transition. It harnesses the best asset we have – our people – and provides opportunities for new jobs, vibrant communities and building the UK economy on cleaner foundations. If we act with foresight, fairness, and ambition, this transition can deliver not only a safer climate but also a stronger, fairer economy for generations to come.
Find out more about the University of Aberdeen’s energy portfolio by visiting stand 2L15 at Offshore Europe from 2-5 September
