This is a past event
Mathematics of tipping points in ecological and climate systems
Title: Mathematics of tipping points in ecological and climate systems
Abstract: In the first part of the talk I will review and explain the notion of "tipping" as it is often used by Earth and climate scientists: under a gradual change of input parameters an ecological or climate system shows a disproportionate change of its output. If the input is gradually changed back the system does not change back.
Commonly cited examples for systems prone to tipping are the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets (as climate subsystems) and lakes and woodland (as ecological systems).
These examples all have in common that a simple positive feedback mechanism is at work. I will introduce a few classical mathematical results governing the most common types of instabilities of steady states that lead to tipping. I will illustrate them with simple examples that are better understood than climate or ecosystems.
In the final part of the talk I will introduce an experimental technique that makes unstable steady states visible in laboratory experiments or simulations of complex models. These unstable equilibria act as barriers between stable states and help determine probability of tipping.
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- Speaker
- Dr Jan Sieber - CEMPS - - Mathematics, University of Exeter
- Venue
- Room S86, Edward Wright Building
- Contact
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Dr. Andrea Patacconi