Research Overview

My research involves the development of models to address novel or long standing scientific issues. I work on a wide range of topics across biology, with particular interests in understanding variation in animal population size over space and time. This may involve using hierarchical models with Bayesian statistical approaches for 1) developing integrated, process-based models of systems dynamics (e.g. population, soil,...), combining data from different sources to inform each process and 2) making the most efficient use of sparse data, such as historical records or volunteer-based surveys. I also have general interests in random effects, smoothing methods, integrated population models and the analysis of spatial and temporal lags in systems' response to environmental variation.

Current Research

• Models for habitat selection over multiple spatial scales (collab. A. Villers - CNRS)

• Real-time prediction of fish distribution hotspots at sea (collab. R. Wiff - G. Martin - T. Marshall - UoA)

• Early detection of local changes in data-poor fish stocks (collab. H Gadenne - L Pawlowski - IFREMER)

• Spatio-temporal variation and early detection of local changes in volume of ambulance interventions across Scotland (J. Jansen - UAB)

• Spatial prediction of plague incidence in Madagascar (collab. S. Telfer - UoA - B. Purse - CEH)

• Wintering ecology and conservation of Montagu's and Pallid harriers in India (collab. C. Krishna, F. Mougeot et al.)

• Meta-analysis of fertilizer-induced global nitrous oxyde emissions in crops (collab. J. Hillier - Edinburgh Univ, F. Albanito - UoA, U. Lebender and F. Brentrup - YARA, C. Stirling - CIMMYT)

• Effects of trait functional importance on fluctuating asymmetry (collab. B. Arroyo)

• Temporal variation in cuckoo laying phenology in Central Europe (collab. P. Adamik)

• Life history trait allometric relationships in Mammals and Plants (collab. L. Santini, J. Travis, N. Beckman, J. Bullock - CEH)

PhD students

• Katie August (2018-2021) Leaving the safety of the forest: The landscape-scale dynamics of a protected mobile species occupying areas with varying levels of protection (co-supervision with X. Lambin)

• Arianna Zampollo (2018-2021) Modelling primary production in Scottish waters to predict the impacts on the ecosystem of climate change and renewable energy devices. (co-supervision with B. Scott, J Tweedle, R. O'Hara)

• Naveed Bhatti (2017-2020) Developing monitoring tools for data deficient conservation priority lichens/bryophytes (co-supervision with R. Mitchell et al.)

• Vivianne Eilers (2017-2020) Evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation actions to reduce the impact of electricity cables and roads on Brazilian fauna (co-supervision with K. Mustin, S. Redpath)

• Ewan McHenry (2014-2018) Doing more with less: adaptive management of American mink population (co-supervision with X. Lambin, D.A. Elston)

Past projects (see publications list for more)

• Spatial and temporal changes in the population dynamics of cyclic rodents - patterns and causes (collab. X. Lambin, N.G. Yoccoz, D.A. Elston et al.)

• Predicting farmland bird population response to environmental change using mechanistic models (Systems: Yellowhammer / UK - Montagu's harrier / France) (collab. X. Lambin, D.A. Elston, A. Millon)

• Retrospective and prospective modelling of American mink eradication in the Outer Hebrides using integrated population models (collab. X. Lambin, I. Macleod, M.K. Oliver)

• Predicting predator response to changes in rodent dynamics (collab. X. Lambin, A. Millon, A. Villers)