Marine Ecological Forecasting and Climate Services

Marine Ecological Forecasting and Climate Services

This is a past event

Mark Payne. Senior Researcher, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark

Panoptop Recording

Abstract: Recent advances in oceanographic modelling now allow us to forecast the state of the ocean years and in some cases even up to a decade in advance. Such forecasts are potentially of great value to society, as they span the gap between the short (days-to-weeks) time scales of weather forecasts and the long (century) time-scales of climate projections: importantly, these are also the time-scales where most users make important decisions. However, a translation step is required to convert the outputs from these models, which are typically physical variables, into variables that are directly relevant to end-users (e.g. distribution of fish stocks). Here I describe the work being done to generate predictions of fish distributions on this 1-10 year time-scale, and thereby develop so-called “marine ecological climate services”. Case studies examining the distribution of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus), blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) and Mackerel (Scomber scrombus) have shown significant forecast skill on these decadal time scales and will be presented in detail. Further examples and opportunities for forecasting ecological variables in the ocean and also on land will also be discussed.

Speaker bio: Mark is currently the chair of the ICES Working Group on Seasonal-to-Decadal Prediction of Marine Ecosystems (WGS2D) which studies ocean predictions on timescales from seasons to decades in order to support marine resource management. His research interests can be explored here:

Mark Payne
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Tara Marshall

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