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Statement by Professor Alex Kemp

Statement on Potential Recovery of North Sea Oil and Gas by Professor Alex Kemp

Professor Alex Kemp and Linda Stephen have conducted substantial modelling on the potential long term recovery of oil and gas from the UKCS.  Their latest modelling finds that, with oil prices used for screening long term investments at $90 per barrel in constant real terms, in the period 2014 - 2050 between 14 and 15 billion barrels of oil equivalent can be economically recovered.  If targeted tax incentives were introduced the economic recovery to 2050 could increase to 15-16.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

But there is potential for further developments after 2050 if other fields can be rendered economically viable.  Professor Kemp and Linda Stephen found that at the year 2050 no less than 125 known existing discoveries remained undeveloped because on current trends they are commercially non-viable.  With further technological progress and oil prices higher than current levels it can reasonably be expected that many of these fields will become viable before 2050.  This should also apply to new discoveries from future exploration.  Thus the ultimate potential of 24 billion barrels of oil equivalent foreseen by Oil and Gas UK appears plausible.


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