Workshop IV
Using empirical data and models in a learning framework for prediction.

14-17th April 2011, Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, USA.

The overall aim of North-Watch is to better understand the integrated consequences of climate change on the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water resources across northern regions. To do this we want to bring together leading, cognate researchers working at long-term experimental catchments in different parts of the northern region comprising sensitive boreal, sub-arctic and sub-alpine environments. The purpose is to facilitate inter-catchment comparisons that will synthesize a comprehensive, interdisciplinary and regional understanding of the recent effects of climatic change and provide a stronger scientific basis for predicting what further changes are likely to be. Our belief is that an examination of a range of sites across a climatic transect in the northern zone will give a much stronger regional perspective on the responses to climatic change than any individual studies alone would do.

Specific Objectives

1. What do we need to improve our ability to simulate hydrology, geochemistry (e.g. DOC) and ecology? Better models, better data or better understanding – where are the current limitations?
2. How can observations be integrated with models to provide a learning framework towards better models for predicting the likely integrated response of water resources to climate variations? Can we develop guidelines or important recommendations for making predictions for future changes?
3. How can we better consider (potential) nonlinearities, thresholds and the likely response of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems?
4. How can past (climate) variability be used to improve our ability to make predictions of future changes?

Programme

Introduction

• Chris Soulsby: Introduction to the North-Watch International Network.
• Kevin McGuire: Introduction to North-Watch Workshop IV & Hubbard Brook.
• Jamie Shanley: Introduction to Sleepers River.

Invited Speaker Presentations

• Breck Bowden (University of Vermont, USA): Ecohydrological perspective of climate change aspects of northern catchments.
• Doug Burns (U.S. Geological Survey): Spatial Controls on C, N, S, and Hg Cycling within Integrated Stream-Lake-Wetland Catchments: Observations and Implications of Climate Change.
• Peter Groffman (Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, NY): Winter climate change research at Hubbard Brook.
• Larry Band (University of North Carolina): Multi-scale ecosystem controls of catchment water, carbon and nutrient cycling in a continental transect.
• Mark Green (Plymouth State University & US Forest Service): A hydrologic response to calcium amendment at Hubbard Brook.

Workshop Attendees