Staff Details

Email: a.g.kemp@abdn.ac.uk
Tel: 01224 272168
Fax: 01224 272181
Room: EW S74

Schlumberger Professor of Petroleum Economics

After graduation, he worked for Shell and the University of Strathclyde. He has also held a visiting appointment at the University of Nairobi.

North Sea Oil and Gas Economics
• Economic modelling of exploration and field development
• Economic modelling effects of royalty and taxation on exploration and development decisions
• Modelling of aggregate medium and longer term activity levels including, investment, production, gross revenues, taxation and net cash flow
• Risk analysis of exploration and development decisions including Monte Carlo and FORM/SORM techniques
• Economics of cluster developments
• Prospects for UK gas supply and demand including effects of Interconnector, Climate Change Levy and Norwegian imports
• Economics of field decommissioning including timing, costs and tax reliefs
• NTS capacity cost charges and economics of marginal gas fields in the UKCS
• Analysis of Production Decline Rates in the UKCS

Official History of North Sea Oil and Gas

International Petroleum Economics

• Lessons from development of UK gas and oil for possible pace of development of oil and gas in Sakhalin
• Comparative studies of impact of royalties and taxation in North Sea countries compared to other petroleum provinces
• The portfolio approach to investment in exploration and development compared to the project approach

ACREEF

North Sea Economics, International Petroleum Economics

• (Kemp, A., with Kasim, A.S.), Are Production Decline Rates Really Exponential?: Evidence from the UK Continental Shelf, The Energy Journal, Vol 26, Issue 1, pp 27-50, 2005
• (Kemp, A., Kasim, S. ), An Econometric Model of Oil and Gas Exploration Development and Production in the UK Continental Shelf: A Systems Approach, The Energy Journal, Vol. 24, No. 2, April, 2003
• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L.), The Economics of Field Cluster Developments in the UKCS, Energy in a Competitive Market: Essays in Honour of Colin Robinson, 2003
• (Kemp, A., with Kasim, A.S.), Fjorecasting Activity Levels in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf: The Role of Perceptions, Energy Economics, Vol 25, Issue 6, pp 713-739, 2003
• (Kemp, A., Smith, F), North Sea Oil and the Aberdeen Economy in Retrospect, Concentration and Dependency: The Role of Maritime Activities in North Sea Communities, Esbjerg, Denmark, pp. 281-305, 2002
• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L.), Gas Production, Imports and Networks , Towards an Energy Policy: The PIU Report and the White Paper, pp. 43-61, 2002
• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L.), Socio-Economic Effects of Licensing the SEA3 Area, Strategic Environmental Assessment of Parts of the Central an Southern North Sea SEA3, August, pp. 181-192. , 2002
• (Kemp, A.), A Prolonged Shelf Life, Holyrood, No. 67, April, pp. 30-31, 2002
• (Kemp, A.), The UKCS After the 2002 Budget, Pipeline, November, Issue 36, pp. 29-30, 2002
• (Kemp, A.), UKCS Awaits Mixed Prospects, World Oil, December, Vol. 223, No. 12, pp. 27-29, 2002
• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L.), The Economics of Petroleum Exploration and Development West of Scotland, Continental Shelf Research, Vol. 21, pp. 1095-1120. , 2001
• (Kemp, A.), A Comparison of Production Sharing and Buy Back Contracts from the Perspectives of Host Governments and Investors, Eghtessad-e-Energy, (Energy Economics), Vol. 2, Nos. 23, 24, April-May pp. 26-31., 2001
• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L.), Prospects for Gas Supply and Demand and their Implication with Special Reference to the UK, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Autumn, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 346-364, 2001
• (Kemp, A.), Future Liabilities, Today's Problem, Fundamentals of the Global Offshore Industry, Petroleum Economist, pp. 163-165, 2001
• (Kemp, A.), UK: New Incentives to Boost Recoveries, World Oil, November, Vol. 222, No. 11, pp. 62-63, 2001
• (Kemp, A.), Grounds for Optimism Exist in UKCS, World Oil, December, Vol. 222, No. 12, pp. 42-43, 2001

• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L), Exploration an Development Investment and Taxable Capacity in the UKCS under Different Oil and Gas Prices, The International Energy Experience: Markets, Regulation and the Environment, pp. 191-202, 2000
• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L.), Risk: Reward Sharing Contracts in the Oil Industry: the Effects of Bonus: Penalty Schemes, Energy Policy, Vol. 27, No.2, February, pp. 111-120. , 1999
• (Kemp, A.), Price, Cost and Exploration Sensitivities of Prospective Activity Levels in the UKCS: An Application of the Monte Carlo Technique, Energy Policy, . 27 Number 13, November, pp. 801-810. , 1999
• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L.), Economic and Fiscal Aspects of Decommissioning Offshore Structures, Decommissioning Offshore Structures, June, pp. 79-123, 1997
• (Kemp, A. G., and Stephen, L.), The Oil Price Changes and Government Revenue, Energy Utilities, January, pp 20 -22, 1997
• (Kemp, A. G., and Stephen, L.), Decommissioning Facilities in the North Sea, Utility Finance, January, pp 14 -15, 1997
• (Kemp, A. G. and Stephen L.), Economic and Fiscal Aspects of Decommissioning, Mothballing and Re-use of Facilities in the UKCS, Energy Utilities, 1997
• (Kemp, A. G. and Stephen, L.), Economic and Fiscal Aspects of Decommissioning, Mothballing and Re-use of Facilities in the UKCS, Decommissioning of Offshore Installations in UKCS, 1997
• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L.), The UK Petroleum Fiscal System in Retrospect, The UK Energy Experience: a Model or a Warning?, pp. 61-78, 1996
• (Kemp, A.), Pros & Cons of Petroleum Royalties, Oxford Energy Forum , Issue No. 25, May, pp. 12 - 14. , 1996
• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L.), Prospective Developments, Production and Revenues from the UKCS 1995-2000: a Financial and Regional Simulation, AD 1995: NW Europe's Hydrocarbon Industry, pp. 215-225, 1996
• (Kemp, A., Stephen, L.), Recent and Prospective Developments in Natural Gas Markets in the UK and Continental Europe, Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Volume 14 Nos. 3 & 4, pp. 295-318, 1996
• (Kemp, A.), Petroleum Royalties Revisited, Oxford Energy Forum, November, pp 17-18. , 1996
• (Kemp, A. G., and Stephen, L.), Modelling the Gas Bubble, Energy Utilities, July, pp 22 - 24, 1996
• (Kemp, A. G., and Stephen, L.), UKCS future beyond 2000 depends on price and reserve trends, World Oil, pp 105 - 112, October, 1996
• (Kemp, A. G., and Stephen, L.), Eventful Times in UK Gas Market Set To Continue, Geopolitics of Energy, Issue 18, Number 8, pp 9 - 12, August, 1996

Founder and Board Member of Aupec Ltd, an independent company of economic consultants to the energy industry. http://www.aupec.com

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• EC 3509

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